January 16th, 2025

Over the past month, I've picked up on a few potential truths about the markets & trade management.

• I need to let the price show me where it's going, not try to predict a price breakdown/out level.

• It really is critical to sell into strength and buy into weakness. Hard to overstate how true this is.

  • BLSO

• The higher my conviction in a setup, the more natural it feels to size up my position/risk. It's okay to change the position/risk size in proportion to how "right" the trade feels.

  • Vice-versa.

• Volume is the greatest "tell".

  • Heavy volume with a dramatically large price movement, or non-movement, signifies either:

    • The directionality of the market's sentiment.

    • The legitimacy of a support/resistance level.

• Lots of wicks typically create unpredictability & greater difficulty.

• I guess what I'm trying to do right now is use small amounts of "live ammo" to figure out what my Playbook trades are.

• Then, I'll use those Playbook trades on future setups and really get to know the characteristics and idiosyncrasies of each individual trade as I trade each setup over and over.

• I really should only trade over a multi-day time frame due to not having enough time, experience, and education to commit to intraday.

  • Thinking about committing ~10-25% of my portfolio to each position so I don't over fixate on any one trade; plus, it'll be less overnight gap risk.

• I think to become a successful trader to any extent, it requires thousands of: trades, reviews of those trades, and hours of education.

  • Just have to have enough capital (aka small enough losses) and hours to commit in order to one day "make it".

December 3rd, 2024